If you’re getting into sports betting, you might hear the term “chalk” thrown around. So, what does it mean? In simple terms, chalk refers to the favorite in a game or event. When someone says they’re “betting the chalk,” they’re picking the team or player expected to win, based on the odds. Betting on the chalk usually feels like the safer option, but it’s not always the most rewarding. Let’s break it down so it’s clear what chalk means and when it might be smart—or not so smart—to bet on it.

What Does Chalk Mean in Betting?

Chalk means the favorite in a bet. If you’re betting on the chalk, you’re going with the team or player that’s favored to win according to the oddsmakers. The term comes from the old days when odds were written on chalkboards in sportsbooks. Favorites were often highlighted or updated regularly, making them “the chalk.”

Example of Chalk in Betting:

Imagine there’s a basketball game between the Golden State Warriors and the Orlando Magic. If the Warriors are listed at -250, that means they’re the chalk, or the favorite. If you place a bet on the Warriors, you’re betting on the chalk. Since they’re expected to win, the payout will be smaller compared to betting on the underdog (the Magic, in this case).

So, if you bet $100 on the Warriors and they win, you’d make a profit of $40. But if you bet $100 on the Magic (let’s say they’re +200), and they pull off the upset, you’d win $200. That’s the trade-off—betting on the chalk is less risky but gives you a smaller return.

Why Do People Bet on the Chalk?

People bet on the chalk because it’s safer—favorites win more often than underdogs. You’re playing the odds in your favor by backing the team that’s expected to come out on top. If you’re someone who’s more risk-averse and just looking to stack up a few wins, betting the chalk might make sense.

Real-life Example:

Take the 2023 Super Bowl, where the Kansas City Chiefs were slightly favored over the Philadelphia Eagles. Betting on the Chiefs, as the chalk, turned out to be the winning play. Sure, the payout wasn’t as large as it would’ve been if the Eagles had won, but it felt more predictable. People who bet on the chalk that day walked away happy, even if they didn’t make a fortune.

Chalk Betting: Pros and Cons

While betting on favorites feels safer, there are some things to keep in mind.

Pros:

  • Higher Win Probability: Favorites are expected to win, so betting on the chalk gives you better odds of winning.
  • Consistency: If you’re looking to build up steady wins, betting the chalk might help you avoid the big losses that can come with riskier underdog bets.

Cons:

  • Lower Payouts: Since favorites are expected to win, the payout is much smaller. You may have to risk more money to make a decent profit.
  • Not Always a Sure Thing: Favorites don’t always win. Upsets happen, and if you bet the chalk in those cases, you can end up losing a lot for very little reward.

When Betting the Chalk Can Backfire

Chalk doesn’t always mean guaranteed. Sports are unpredictable, and there are plenty of examples where the underdog shocks everyone.

Example of a Chalk Loss:

In the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, the University of Virginia was a heavy favorite (chalk) to beat UMBC. The odds were so lopsided that many thought Virginia winning was a lock. But UMBC made history by becoming the first 16-seed to knock off a 1-seed. Anyone who bet on the chalk lost, while underdog bettors had a field day.

Chalk vs. Underdog: When to Take the Risk

If you’re wondering when to go for the chalk and when to take a shot at the underdog, it’s all about strategy and timing. Betting on the chalk is a smart play when you’re confident in the favorite’s performance—like if a dominant team is playing a weaker one. But if you see an underdog with potential, maybe because of injuries, matchups, or trends, taking the risk could pay off big.

Real-life Underdog Win

In 2015, Leicester City was given 5000-to-1 odds to win the English Premier League. Betting the chalk that year would’ve meant backing powerhouses like Manchester City or Chelsea, but those who dared to bet on Leicester saw one of the greatest underdog wins in sports history, with massive payouts.

What Does No Chalk Mean?

No chalk means betting against the favorite—picking the underdog instead. If you believe the favorite is overvalued or ripe for an upset, betting no chalk could lead to a much higher payout. It’s a riskier approach, but when it works, it pays off big time.

Should You Bet on the Chalk?

Whether you bet on the chalk or not depends on your betting style. If you prefer to play it safe and build up smaller, steady wins, chalk bets might be your go-to. But if you’re willing to take a risk for bigger rewards, consider betting on underdogs when the odds seem right.

If you want to get expert tips and insights on when to bet the chalk or go against it, check out Bet Picks Pro. We offer daily betting picks sent straight to your phone to help you make smarter decisions. Try it risk-free for 14 days and see how it helps you win more!